Are you a glass Half-Full or Half-Empty person? In these very challenging times, the first 181 days of 2009 may go down as one of the most memorable times in U.S. history. The question will be if it will be a good memory or not. The combination of economic data and period items mark this time in history, so you make the decision:

• President Obama, the first U.S. afro-American President, is inaugurated on January 20, 2009.
• The U.S. economy is in economic recession after real estate and financial crisis starting in 2008.
• Super Bowl XLIII on February 1, 2009 sees the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Arizona Cardinal 27-23 for their 6^th overall NFL Title.
• The DJIA saw a 587 point fall from January 2 to June 20, 2009 or 6.5% drop as companies struggle for earnings and a path to recovery.
• Energy prices climb, as oil prices fluctuate from a low $40 per barrel to $70 in late June. And according to AAA, the National Average for Regular Gas Price per gallon rises from approximately $1.80 on June 2 to over $2.60 by June 30, 2009, but down dramatically from $4.09 per gallon this time last year.
• The NHL saw a renewed battle from last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, but this time the Pittsburgh Penguins defeat the Detroit Red Wings in 7 games, for their 3^rd Stanley Cup.
• The U.S. unemployment rate continues to rise, closing in on double-digits, starting from 7.6% in January to 9.4% in May, a 24% increase. Will the stimulus package bring relief?
• Home values fall hardest in history, as according to S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index the national average fell approximately 20%. But prices have started to stabilize in many areas.
• The yield curve steepens; as the 2YR CMT was .88% on January 2 and currently at 1.11%, while the 10YR CMT was 2.46% on January 2 and currently at 3.53%, with a spread of the two indices of 1.58% in January and currently at 2.42%. Many fear inflationary pressures, but historically still low rates overall.
• The NBA saw the Kobe Bryant led L.A. Lakers defeat the Orlando Magic for their 15^th overall NBA Title.
• The FDIC has closed 44 banks year-to-date.
• Financier Bernie Madoff convicted in $50B ponzi scheme and sentenced to 150 years.
• The U.S. Big 3 Auto Companies become 1, as GMC and Chrysler file for bankruptcy.
• The U.S. mourns the deaths of some famous Americans; Dom DeLuise, Ed McMahon, Farah Fawcett and Michael Jackson.
• Tiger Woods makes recovery from injury to win 2 PGA Tournaments in 2009.
• Mortgage originations increase over 71% in Q1’ 09 compared to Q4 ’08.

Will the combination of increased government debt and lower consumer spending keep rates low long enough to spur on the recovery? Or is the calm before the storm? The U.S. economy has recovered before and found momentum to go forward. So Half-Full or Half-Empty?

Scott is Principal of SBW Advisors, an advisory and consulting firm servicing the mortgage, banking and credit union industries. With over 25 years experience, they can offers services in Secondary Marketing, Warehousing, Broker to Banker transitions, Servicing and Accounting. You can reach Scott via www.SBWAdvisors.com and email at scott@SBWAdvisors.com