another opinion – Oil Price Will Stall on Fundamentals – Walter Kurtz – Oil prices are not going back to the levels of last summer. The prices are capped. The latest numbers from Credit Suisse show why. The financial crisis has created permanent destruction of demand growth. The expectation now is 1% growth in demand per year. … Given that the demand by 2015 is expected to be 90 million barrels per day (MBD), this new need for oil can be easily met by cheaper forms of production, in effect capping the price. … The graph below from Credit Suisse shows where oil price needs to be to achieve a 16% return on capital investing in new sources of supply, vs. the amount of new supply available from these sources. … – Riskcenter.com
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Carbon Trading Set To Triple by 2012 - Following the recent approval by the US House of Representatives of a climate change bill, the world now appears set on an irreversible path toward a dramatic expansion of carbon trading. Oxford Analytica takes a look at carbon emissions legislation around the world in a new report. – Research Recap

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Transcript: Whitney Tilson – Steve Forbes  – Whitney Tilson is the founder of T2 Partners. - also has video – Forbes   – talks about:
Housing Carnage
AIG’s Future
Bottom Next Year
Emotional Trading
More Bad Mortgages
Don’t Be A Hero
Lessons About Risk
No More Collapses
Short Some Banks
transcript here       Video here
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Hit the gas – Exchange-traded fund geared to hedge higher fuel prices – Families who pack up the car this Fourth of July weekend will spend much less on gasoline than last year — prices are down by more than a third from last summer. But when it comes to fueling your investment portfolio, a specialized exchange-traded fund may hedge against unwelcome oil-price spikes.  United States Gasoline Fund is designed to track the movement of gas prices, but investors should be aware of its caveats and risks. – MarketWatch

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VaR explained & the BS model (not Black Scholes) – Value at Risk is pretty simple.  Someone is making a guess about what they expect to happen 95% or 99% of the time.  i.e. 99% of the time you will lose less than $1000 a day. etc.  What many people forget to focus on is the fact that what happens the other 1-5% of the time is what counts. – good commentary – Nick Gogerty

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has good data table: Long Run Risk Management Technology Implications of the Latest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices -  Donald R. van Deventer – The release of the latest Case-Shiller home price indices by Standard & Poor’s and calculation agent Fiserv immediately provoked some rare optimism that the bottom of the home price cycle may well be at hand.  As welcome as that news is, the Case-Shiller numbers released this month contain some very important long-run implications for how enterprise risk management in general and credit portfolio management in particular should be done.  This post tells why. – riskcenter.com

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China officials call for displacing dollar, in time – By Simon Rabinovitch – The financial crisis has laid bare defects in the dollar-led global economy and the world should look to displace the U.S. currency, even if that will take many years, Chinese officials said in comments published on Monday.  The push for fundamental, if gradual, reform of the international financial system comes just before the Group of Eight summit in Italy, where China’s willingness to question the dollar’s role could fuel debate. – Reuters

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Calls grow to supplant dollar as global currency – France joins China, India and Russia in calling for a new reserve standard on the eve of the G8 summit – Karim Bardeesy – Globe and Mail