Bill Gross: $1T in writedowns; Kevin Griffin exposits

July 24th, 2008 · No Comments

Check out this story: 

Mortgage Writedowns to Total $1 Trillion, Gross Says  - Sandra Hernandez - Bloomberg

Expect more chatter about the huge gap between the $467BB in writedowns taken so far and the now commonly used best-guess of $1 Trillion.  BTW, some have estimated as high as $1.3TR.  It’s important to keep in mind this figure is dynamic.  The final tally is directly tied to the housing market.  As writedowns actually taken approach the $1TR figure, best guesses could be $1.5TR by then.  The markets will have a much better handle on this 6 mo’s from now.

These numbers are telling you we’re not even halfway there yet, and that assumes
the best guesses end up being right.  Using the recent run-rate of $150BB in writedowns announced each quarter, it will take another 4-5 quarters to top $1TR.  And what happens if housing slides further?  Total writedowns will go higher still.