posted by Bill Coppedge

Our contributor, Richard Bitner has a new video at youtube. 

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MBIA: Is Fair Value Accounting a Good Deal for Investors? - … Applying the rules now mandated by FAS 157 to illiquid assets strikes us as a really bad idea, in large part because such an exercise is entirely subjective and violates the basic rules of forensic investigation. It is easy to get a price on any asset, just pick up the phone. But to determine “fair value” is an entirely different matter. … Institutional Risk Advisor

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Paul Kasriel: Recession Now - Putting Our Forecast Where Our Mouth Has Been - Northern Trust

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Is Japan Subprime’s Next Flashpoint? - …  nagging fear that Japan’s lenders - the conduit for the world’s greatest stash of savings - have taken on a far bigger chunk of mortgage securities, collateralized loans obligations and other exotica from America’s structured credit boom than they have yet revealed.  … Eben Esterhuizen - seeking alpha

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A Chrysler-Scale Bailout Of Those Monolines - And you won’t believe how all of America’s credit troubles began - Robert Lenzner - Forbes

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Don’t Blame Subprimes. “The real problem is affordability… (Silicon Valley) … A home in the area costs almost 13 times annual income. Home prices in that market would have to drop nearly 70% or income would have to triple, and interest rates would have to stay low for the price-to-income ratio to reach a more affordable level.” - Washington Post 

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Long Island: Home Prices Will Drop For 2 More Years, 2 Experts Predict.
1.  Martin Cantor of Dowling College …  could drop another 15%…
2.  Irwin Kellner …To get to a point where prices are four times incomes, median home prices would have to fall 24% in Suffolk and 29% in Nassau.”   

It is worth reading the whole article -  NewsDay.com 

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Watching for Audit Delays and “Qualified” Opinions - John P. Hussman, Ph.D.  Hussman Funds

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Stock trading - bet you did not know this - Watch Out For The Quants - And then there are the dark pools, dark orders, Guerrilla and Sigma X. - Forbes 

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OCC Overreach: Don’t Let This Happen Again John Dugan’s concern on CRE loans is very concerning; It’s time to fight back - Vernon W. Hill - bankstocks.com 

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Recession Odds Stabilize at 67% -  Every month or so, we like to update the Intrade prediction market odds of a recession in 2008.  As shown, after a spike in January, the contract has declined some and stabilized in the 65% to 70% range.  This means the actual money is putting the odds of a recession in ‘08 at about 67%.  -  BIG

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Latest Walk-Away: Toll Brother Family Member -  The Big Picture 

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Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans  - thanks to Ted M for finding this - NY Times

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MGIC - Wisconsin mortgage insurer pulling back on risky loans - … Starting March 3, the company will require at least 5 percent down on homes in so-called restricted markets. They include the entire states of Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada and major metro areas such as Washington, D.C., Detroit, Chicago, Boston and Atlanta.  … - AP  - PostCrescent.com

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Great Reverse Mortgage Article From The Wall Street Journal - Reverse Mortgage Daily

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Economy Darkest Before the Dawn - by Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, Mesirow Financial